Delegate Counts

Ok so I'm an Obama supporter but I don't see how Clinton can win the nomination without the help of super delegates,  my logic below. I have Hillary winning every single except Vermont contest and many by margins of up to 16%. Let me make clear that I don't think that theres a snowballs chance in hell Hillary will win all these contests let alone with these margins I gave her however I'm offering up her best case scenario. The Delegate counts appear to the right of the percentages.

State               Clinton   Obama
Ohio                53%(75)   47%(66)
Rhode Island        58%(12)   42%(9)
Texas               54%(100)  46%(93)
Vermont             44%(7)    56%(8)
Wyoming             58%(7)    42%(5)
Mississippi         58%(19)   42%(14)  
Pennsylvania        58%(92)   42%(66)
Guam                58%(2)    42%(2)
Indiana             58%(42)   42%(30)
North Carolina      51%(59)   42%(56)
West Virginia       58%(16)   42%(12)
Kentucky            58%(30)   42%(21)
Oregon              58%(30)   42%(22)
Montana             58%(9)    42%(7)
South Dakota        58%(9)    42%(6)
Puerto Rico         58%(32)   42%(23)

Even after adding ALL of these numbers for her she still trails Badly in the delegate count to Obama the numbers come out to...
1,632 for Obama and 1,577 (51%-49%) for Clinton assuming you believe the current delegate count is 1,192 Obama and 1,036 for Clinton. Even if she wins Vermont she only picks up 1 more delegate. Looking at the numbers the ONLY way Hillary can win is to overrule the pledged delegate count by convincing the super delegates to side with her.

So to recap given Hillary's best case scenario she still comes up short 59 delegates to Obama. All Obama needs to do is keep it close as he has done in almost every single contest. To date Hillary has only been able to win a state by 16% or more 3 times. I find it highly unlikely she'll be able to do this for the 90% of the remaining states...



Display:


MyDD (none / 0)

is a no math zone


by zonk on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 01:36:08 PM EST

Re: MyDD (none / 0)

I guess the Huckster isn't the only one that didn't major in math but in miracles.


by Why Not on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 02:01:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Delegate Counts (none / 0)

So essentially, if the delegate count roughly corresponds to the winning percentage, and she sweeps the remaining contests, the best she does is tie him (she'd be +50 in supers and -50 in pledged).  Then it goes to the convention, superdelegates essentially pick the winner, and half the party is furious.

But, as you said, there's no way she wins all those (barring a MAJOR problem for Obama).  


Donate to Obama, Today!
by freedom78 on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 01:37:52 PM EST

Re: Delegate Counts (none / 0)

Exactly, thats why I could never vote for her, shes willing to rip the party to shreds to win this...


by anujtron on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 01:40:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Delegate Counts (none / 0)

I'm not prepared to say that, yet.  If she has a net delegate loss on Tuesday, and still insists on battling on, then I think that point becomes much more valid (and I think she starts to hear it from some of her supporters who'd put the party above the candidate).


Donate to Obama, Today!
by freedom78 on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 01:46:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MI and Fl (none / 0)

MI and FL should be redone, How the hell are you gonna count delegates in favor of Hillary when Obama wasn't even running in MI. Hell with the rules your just like the Clinton's do anything say anything to get your horse elected. And as far as the will of the voters goes Obama has over 1 million more votes then Clinton...


by anujtron on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 01:47:03 PM EST

Re: MI and Fl (none / 0)

You can't assume that those contests reflect what would have been the will of the voters had all candidates had an opportunity to fully campaign in those states and had all candidates been on the ballot.  


Donate to Obama, Today!
by freedom78 on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 01:51:23 PM EST

Re: MI and Fl (none / 0)

They'll assume whatever helps there candidate, If Obama had one these 2 states they would be on the other side of the fence, and you can bet the Obama team wouldn't be trying to pull this shit...


by anujtron on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 01:57:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MI and Fl (none / 0)

I am proudly for my candidate, but not so much that I have lost all sense of fair play.  Let's face it...when the Clinton camp was in favor of these rules, it was when she was expected to steamroll the competition on her way to the coro...WHOOPS!...I mean NOMInation.


Donate to Obama, Today!
by freedom78 on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 02:02:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MI and Fl (none / 0)

Revoting is problematic, because it ALSO (just like seating the delegations, as is) doesn't represent what voters WOULD have done on the initial election day.  

It's all troublesome, really.  I think the GOP was smart enough to know that Democratic party rules are stricter than theirs, and so moved up the race hoping to help themselves in the general by making their citizens pissed at the Dems due to the primary.  Considering that the GOP controls three of the four relevant legislative bodies, it seems plausible.  More so in Florida, where they control both houses and the governorship.  I think Michigan may have genuinely been desperate to have some input in the process, on both sides of the aisle.


Donate to Obama, Today!
by freedom78 on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 02:19:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Delegate Counts (2.00 / 1)

Ummmmm .... I was told there would be no math questions.


"No matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party because we must win in November." -Hillary Clinton
by fugazi on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 01:57:29 PM EST

Re: Delegate Counts (none / 0)

I understand her logic for staying in and I don't begrudge her for it in the least.  Obama could have a nuclear-winter-sized meltdown.  One of these silly whisper campaigns could grow some major-league legs.  The Rezko thing could blow up.  Who knows?  I'm doubtful any of these scenarios will play out.  But continuing the primary at this point is great exposure for both of the Dems, it helps them build their ground game, and it makes the Democratic discussions more prominent in the blue-chip media.  These are all good things I think.  Besides if Obama really does self-destruct, Hillary needs to be there to carry the torch.

If this gets really ugly and really nasty and cleaves the Democratic Party, that would be a different story.  So far, I'm convinced that hasn't happened and probably won't.


by the mollusk on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 02:16:06 PM EST

Re: MI and Fl (none / 0)

ROTLMFAO!

Why are you so obsessed with changing the rules that Hillary, Barack and everyone else agreed to? If the DNC seats the delegates according to the "beuty contest" results in FL and the "Hillary vs. Uncommitted" results in MI, that will send a clear signal that every state party is from now on free to defy the DNC and they can hold their Primary in November of the year before the General Election if they damn well want to.

Get a grip!


Two riders were approaching...... and the wind began to howl!
by John in Chicago on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 05:05:39 PM EST

Re: Delegate Counts (none / 0)

haven't you seen the latest survey that only 24% of floridians want the original votes to count


by pholkhero on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 05:13:44 PM EST


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