Updated: Question To Clinton Supporters

I posted this in a comment but this is something I've been wondering for a while and hopefully you guys can shed some light on this. Assuming Clinton wins PA 10+ and Obama wins NC 10+ what is Clintons path to the nomination? Is it simply to woo the super delegates?

Once PA and NC are over there are only 293 pledged delegates remaining. Even if Clinton won 65% of the vote Obama would still be ahead 69 delegates. And shes not going to get 65% of the vote.

So whats the game plan? How do you guys think shes going to pull this off?

I used slates delegate counter to come up with this so my numbers might be a bit off

http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

Another thing I'm trying to figure out is when is this over? Once she's mathematically illuminated? If She loses PA? or is the plan to go to the convention regardless of where she is in the delegate count?



Display:


What a great question! (none / 0)

I'd like to hear this too.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:10:45 PM EST

General Question for all (none / 0)

What do people think the final delegate count will be after last primary and the super delegates announce? (It sounds like a lot are liking the idea of a mini convention of supers in June)


by del on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:23:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: General Question for all (none / 0)

Let's answer the diarist's question first.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:37:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (2.00 / 1)

Well, of course, once Florida and Michigan are counted (and they will be), then the numbers change dramatically. And if they aren't counted, the general election numbers change dramatically and I no longer regard the Democratic party as the voice of the people.

Who knows? Maybe some people have a plan. It doesn't matter. What matters to me is that she's stays in the race because she's the most progressive Democrat running with the best platform, and I want her out there fighting the good fight as long as possible.

And nothing is more offensive to me that the Obama's insistence that he is entitled to the nomination at this point and that she's, somehow,  obligated to drop out.  I also want her to stay in the race just because I'm offended by the entitlement coming out of the Obama camp.


by Little Otter on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:12:19 PM EST

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

I understand you want her in the race, but from my vantage point theres almost no chance for her winning and say what you will about the Clinton's they have a plan to win this and think that they can win this, just trying to figure it out
by anujtron on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:17:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

Did you see he just compared the campaign to the Bataan Death March.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/03/27/obama -takes-apparent-jab-at-clinton-while-fun draising-on-her-turf/


by del on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:19:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Arrogance (2.00 / 1)

I'll never understand why the Obama camp does stuff like this.  Hillary Clinton is not going to quit. If the Obama math is unassailable, then why go out of your way to condescend to her supporters?  Why piss them off all the time?  If there's one thing that might be worse for Obama in the fall than Jeremiah Wright, it's the perception that he's arrogant.  (Michelle Obama exudes little but arrogance.)  Obama's doing a lot of talking, but he hasn't done much walking.  If there was ever a presidential candidate who should show a little humility, it's Barack Obama.  The voters will expect it from him if he's fortunate enough to share a stage with John McCain, who--like it or not--is a man who has DONE things.


by Upstate Dem on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 06:18:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm not sure (none / 0)

I can agree with you on that.  When is the last time Senator Clinton even mentioned, let alone congratulated, Senator Obama after a primary that he has won?

Obama rarely fails to be complimentary to Clinton (whether in victory or defeat) and goes out of his way to demonstrate his respect for her.

Say what you about tactics, about positions, but I think when it comes to graciousness, Obama wins hands down.


Anybody got any mixers? - Zaphod Beeblebrox.
by UrbanRedneck on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 09:13:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

once Florida and Michigan are counted (and they will be), then the numbers change dramatically.

Counted, as in counting the January results as is? Not happening. But I believe the delegates will be seated, just not on the basis of the primaries. I think it'll end up a 50-50 split. I doubt anyone really wants to literally leave the FL and MI delegates outside in the Denver cold.

she's the most progressive Democrat running with the best platform, and I want her out there fighting the good fight as long as possible.

Well, that kind of support is admirable, but I blanch at seeing her hailed as the most progressive. On economic issues, she fell well short of it. I don't consider her or Obama to be true progressives, though they've come around to it. The most pure, classic progressive was Edwards.

Obama's insistence that he is entitled to the nomination at this point and that she's, somehow,  obligated to drop out.

It's not "entitlement," it's being solidly ahead and almost assuredly winning. Has any candidate ever dropped out because they wanted to? When their chances become minimal, they do it for the good of the party, abandoning their own dreams in the process.

If your position is, "She has little chance of winning, but I don't care because I want her to stick around and fight," that makes it more a vanity campaign than an viable one. There's no law against it, but don't expect her campaign to be taken seriously the longer it goes.

I like Hillary, but the numbers just aren't there. What else is there to say?


by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:37:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

If he is so confident of winning, then he doesn't need her to drop out. Clinton wasn't insisting that people drop out when she was running way ahead. So yes, it's entitlement. Hillary is messing with his plan to win.

BTW, when Michigan and Florida are seated, and the popular votes counted, there's only a few hundred thousand difference between the two - easily made up between now and then.

So sad to see the less progressive front of the Democratic party turning their backs on counting all the votes just so the candidatd they prefer can win easily - rather than actually earn the win.

You do realize that not counting Florida and Michigan's votes will almost certainly doom Obama's campaign to failure, don't you? What kind of Democrat would support a candidate who won like that? Not anyone who objected to Bush's win in 2000, that's for sure.


by Little Otter on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:58:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

If he is so confident of winning, then he doesn't need her to drop out. Clinton wasn't insisting that people drop out when she was running way ahead.

This isn't about a spitting contest between Barack and Hillary, it's about our party. And WE need her to drop out if she can't win. Just like we would've needed him to drop out if she had closed him out on Super Tuesday.

Before several weeks ago, I thought it would be good to keep the primary going...it would allow us to build party organizations in more states, it would give greater exposure to our candidates and our party message, and it would drown out McCain. But this is no longer a civil battle of differing ideas...now it's really personal and ugly.

We don't need months more of these ridiculous personal attacks (not patriotic! McCarthyite! Only here because he's black! Monster!). We've reached of decreasing marginal utility--nothing positive can come of this race anymore, it's just damaging BOTH candidates.

Meanwhile, the candidates and their supporters are wasting money advertising against each other when we could be building up an enormous warchest against McCain. McCain farts around the country confusing Shiites and Sunnis, and no one cares because it's barely covered. Instead, all we get is the latest about Tuzla or Rev. Wright.

As for Clinton "running way ahead," I honestly don't know what you're talking about. Being ahead in polls a year before any votes take place isn't quite the same as being behind in popular votes, delegages and states won.

BTW, when Michigan and Florida are seated, and the popular votes counted, there's only a few hundred thousand difference between the two - easily made up between now and then.

I'll say this again, and I'm really not trying to be rude: This is not happening. Period.

There may be an arrangement to seat the delegates, but there is no way in hell they will seat them according to her win over "uncommitted." I keep reading Hillary supporters attacking us for being so "anti-Democratic," yet you actually expect us to respect a primary where it was "Hillary vs. No One"??

If you're premising your entire argument on something that won't happen--counting the MI and FL primary votes as is--there's really not much left to support her staying in.

And this isn't some hypocritical thing, despite what you think. Had Clinton cleaned up on Super Tuesday, we probably would've thrown Obama overboard and coalesced behind her. I care less about who our nominee is than that we actually HAVE a nominee. It happened in 2004, when most of us netroots folks ditched our beloved Howard Dean as soon as it became apparent Kerry had the best chance of winning in November.

Hell, Obama wasn't even my candidate to start this thing, so I'm hardly one to be accused of some blind devotion to the guy. The facts are what they are. It's time to get a nominee and defeat the real enemy, McCain.


by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 06:48:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

even if they do count Florida and Michigan, she still has to win the rest of the contests with 58% or more to win the pledged delegates.


The Democratic Party doesn't live or die with the Clintons
by nrafter530 on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 06:30:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (2.00 / 1)

Obama still also needs superdelegates - he can't get to the magic number on the delegate number alone. If she wins big (and I don't think anyone at this point can define "big"), she has a case to make that a)Obama has stalled on a decision on FL/MI because he thinks he couldn't win in a revote, b)She will have won every big state (especially those needed for a Dem win in November), c) she will have momentum, d) and the popular vote of FL/MI should be considered even if the delegates don't get seated (because people really did vote) and if she has the popular lead vote, it's a strong argument.

The finish line is not getting the most delegates - the ultimate goal (and what SD's need to consider) is who is really the strongest candidate to win in November.  All the rest is just noise.


by cmugirl90 on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:12:26 PM EST

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

Obama is pushing for a solution to FL http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/ 03/26/obama-warms-to-wrapping-up-contest /
by anujtron on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:15:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A better question.... (2.00 / 1)

You are asking the wrong question (in my opinion).  The right question is:

What is their path to being a successful president ?  Winning the nomination is not the final goal ~ it is only one step.

At this point, neither Sen. Obama, nor Sen. Clinton have a reasonable hope of winning in the fall with a "governing majority"


If you follow history with a long enough arc, things always get better, and the truth always prevails...Gandhi
by SevenStrings on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:20:44 PM EST

Re: A better question.... (none / 0)

And why is that?
by anujtron on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:21:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A better question.... (none / 0)

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/27/1730 38/434


If you follow history with a long enough arc, things always get better, and the truth always prevails...Gandhi
by SevenStrings on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:45:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

you say:

"Assuming Clinton wins PA 10+ and Obama wins NC 10+ what is Clintons path to the nomination? Is it simply to woo the super delegates?
Once PA and NC are over there are only 293 pledged delegates remaining. Even if Clinton won 65% of the vote Obama would still be ahead 69 delegates. And shes not going to get 65% of the vote.
So whats the game plan? How do you guys think shes going to pull this off?"

good question - the superD's.

just like:
"Assuming Clinton wins PA 10+ and Obama wins NC 10+ what is Obamas path to the nomination? Is it simply to woo the super delegates?
Once PA and NC are over there are only 293 pledged delegates remaining. Even if Clinton won 65% of the vote Obama would still be ahead 69 delegates. And shes not going to get 65% of the vote.
So whats the game plan? How do you guys think hes going to pull this off?"


"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle." Plato
by canadian gal on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:25:02 PM EST

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (2.00 / 1)

Couldn't have said it any better.

As if Obama's path to the nomination does not iclude wooing superdelegates.


When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line
by lori on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:26:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

But in order for this to pan out in her favor she would need to win she would need like 500 super delegates, do you think thats possible?
by anujtron on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:30:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

This is factually incorrect.

Both candidates require wooing superdelegates in order to win.  Neither candidate is capable of winning without them.

That is the fact, and the no-spin truth.

As a fun exercise, I created a spreadsheet that mapped the number of Superdelegates in each state.  I then plugged in the winner of each state, to see what would happen if Superdelegates followed the Obama/Axelrod rule, and voted according to the will of their constituents.

You know what's funny?

If they followed Axelrod's advice, Obama's delegate lead would be almost erased.  Putting it another way - the only reason Obama has as big a lead as he does is because his campaign has "woo'd" Superdelegates.


Eyes on the Prize: Hillary 08
by bobbank on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:44:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

Sorry, just realized I misread lori's post. ^_^;


Eyes on the Prize: Hillary 08
by bobbank on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:45:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (2.00 / 1)

Giving anujtron the benefit of the doubt, I'll assume this is an honest question and not meant to be inflammatory.

Hillary's path to victory, in my mind, relies on accomplishing three things between now and June.

1 - Solutions for MI & FL (sidenote: Mar. 26 court ruling, depending on your interpretation, actually requires a revote now)
2 - "Most votes" (this is troublesome since there are several valid ways to define this..)
3 - Clearly better performance in the general election

Keep in mind that, despite the fact that many media sources are parroting Axelrod press releases, pretending that a popular vote victory is impossible for Hillary, it's not only possible, but not especially difficult.

You can read an excellent piece on this here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horsera ceblog/2008/03/predict_the_dem_race.html

It includes a spreadsheet you can download to play with assumptions on turnout and so on.  Imagine, a journalist actually gathering facts and encouraging you to think, instead of pretending to think for you!  I have had some correspondence with Mr. Cost, and he and I are in agreement that, while Hillary's odds are less than 50/50, they are not nearly as low as the Axelrod media is pretending.

The pledged delegate count means very little to me.  Apparently, superdelegates agree, or they would have ended this by now.

I have been on record stating that, if we have a fair solution to MI and FL, and Hillary has not achieved the popular vote and general election arguments by June, then the contest should end as far as I am concerned.  I'll be disappointed, and I may not be able to vote Dem, but I'll accept the results of a fair contest.  What I do not accept is the absurd Axelrod marketing that the media parrots day in and day out.

I like to think for myself.


Eyes on the Prize: Hillary 08
by bobbank on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:34:59 PM EST

So the primary process doesn't matter? (none / 0)

So the whole primary process. The process by which pledged delegates are chosen, just doesn't matter? If that's true, then I'm done. This isn't America. It's some country I'm not familiar with.


John McCain supports privatizing Social Security.
by Travis Stark on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:41:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So the primary process doesn't matter? (none / 0)

i understand where you're coming from - but these unfortunately are the rules of the game - and if like the rebubs democrats had winner take all contests - HRC would have already won the nomination - in any case it is close from being over.  lets see what happens.


"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle." Plato
by canadian gal on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 07:27:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

I'm middle of the road, but I voted for Obama and think he'll win.

Anyhow: I think one answer is that it's a mistake for Obama supporters to assume that it's impossible for Hillary Clinton to get more than 65% of the vote. Maybe it's almost impossible, but weird things could happen.

Other possibilities:

- A court ruling or some other event could put the Florida and Michigan delegates back in play.

- A calamity could (G-d forbid) force Obama out of the race.

- Something bizarre could happen that would make Obama and Hillary Clinton spontaneously decide to form a unity ticket.

- Maybe Hillary is staying in the race to achieve some other goal, such as raising more money and balancing her campaign books.

- Maybe Hillary thinks staying in the race will somehow help in certain congressional races she cares about, or help her pass bills in the Senate.

- Maybe Hillary would get out, but the consultants who see her as a cash cow are manipulating her into staying in the race to milk more fees out of her.

- Maybe Hillary is staying in the race just because she loves being a serious presidential contender and is enjoying being in the spotlight for as long as she can.

- Maybe Obama or is people have asked her to concede in a way that she's found to be rude, sexist, etc., and she's staying in the race just because she's annoyed about the Obama campaign's attitude.

My modest proposal: all of us Democratic voters should simply say no to anger and unite in love for our candidates. We should say, "We love you both, we'll support whoever gets the nomination, and here are some foam bats you can use to go at each other and vent your frustration."

If we were beaming love at one another, maybe the love would radiate upward through the Webosphere and help Obama and Hillary Clinton calm down a little.


by sclminc on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 05:43:14 PM EST

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

Maybe Hillary is staying in the race because she has a movement behind her. And the movement will not let her quit. On a number of feminist blogs the strategy now is to write Hillary in come Nov. This may not be a large number of voters, but enough to deny the GE to Obama.


by DaleA on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 06:17:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

Wish I'd included that. My argument would be that it would be at least a little wrong for HRC to concede if it's still a little bit possible for her to win and her supporters want her to keep running.


by sclminc on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 06:25:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Question To Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

Any so-called feminist who votes to lose the campaign to a Republican should have their head examined.
McCain has promised to appoint judges that will overturn Roe V. Wade.
by skohayes on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 07:16:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Updated: Question To Clinton Supporters (none / 0)

Clinton will stay in the race until the convention. Please don't forget about Florida and Michigan. Their votes are going to be counted. Then, what will Obama's supporters do if Obama loses?
by zenful6219 on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 09:38:36 PM EST


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