Ok so I'm an Obama supporter but I don't see how Clinton can win the nomination without the help of super delegates, my logic below. I have Hillary winning every single except Vermont contest and many by margins of up to 16%. Let me make clear that I don't think that theres a snowballs chance in hell Hillary will win all these contests let alone with these margins I gave her however I'm offering up her best case scenario. The Delegate counts appear to the right of the percentages.
State Clinton Obama
Ohio 53%(75) 47%(66)
Rhode Island 58%(12) 42%(9)
Texas 54%(100) 46%(93)
Vermont 44%(7) 56%(8)
Wyoming 58%(7) 42%(5)
Mississippi 58%(19) 42%(14)
Pennsylvania 58%(92) 42%(66)
Guam 58%(2) 42%(2)
Indiana 58%(42) 42%(30)
North Carolina 51%(59) 42%(56)
West Virginia 58%(16) 42%(12)
Kentucky 58%(30) 42%(21)
Oregon 58%(30) 42%(22)
Montana 58%(9) 42%(7)
South Dakota 58%(9) 42%(6)
Puerto Rico 58%(32) 42%(23)
Even after adding ALL of these numbers for her she still trails Badly in the delegate count to Obama the numbers come out to...
1,632 for Obama and 1,577 (51%-49%) for Clinton assuming you believe the current delegate count is 1,192 Obama and 1,036 for Clinton. Even if she wins Vermont she only picks up 1 more delegate. Looking at the numbers the ONLY way Hillary can win is to overrule the pledged delegate count by convincing the super delegates to side with her.
So to recap given Hillary's best case scenario she still comes up short 59 delegates to Obama. All Obama needs to do is keep it close as he has done in almost every single contest. To date Hillary has only been able to win a state by 16% or more 3 times. I find it highly unlikely she'll be able to do this for the 90% of the remaining states...
For the longest time I wasn't sure if Obama could pull this thing off, however I'm more convinced then ever that Hillary will be leaving the race come March 5th
ARG Poll
Texas: Obama 50%, Clinton 42%
Ohio: Clinton 49%, Obama 39%
PPP Poll
Ohio: Clinton 50%, Obama 46%
CNN Poll
Texas: Obama 50%, Clinton 46%
Ohio Poll
Ohio: Clinton 47%, Obama 39%
Quinnipiac poll
Ohio: Clinton 51%, Obama 40%
Remember Clinton was up by 20 points in each one of these states now Obama has taken the lead in Texas and is closing in on Hillary in Ohio. The trend is strongly favoring Obama. At this rate with 8 days to go I say Obama wins both states. One thing is for sure there is no way Hillary will be able to blow Obama out of the water at this rate. The best Hillary can do is not make an ass out of herself but it seems as if shes intent on doing just that.
I've been sitting on the fence in the Democratic Primaries, for a time I really felt conflicted between Obama and Clinton. Over the past few months I've almost become certain that another Clinton presidency would be disastrously for the country and the democratic party. As this primary has dragged on I've come to not believe in anything Clinton has to say, rather I've come to realize that everything she has to say is cold and calculated. I've also realized that she'll change her position on just about anything as long as it suits her personally. I'll try to explain below.
· Obama campaign, not Iowa Democratic Party, to coordinate GOTV in Iowa (desmoinesdem)
· Some 4th of July Trivia (fbihop)
· VIDEO: McCain Denies Economics Comments, DNC Releases Web Video Proving Otherwise (Matt Ortega)
· MN-Sen: Norm Coleman's record on education (MN Campaign Report)
· Liveblog: Obama in Colorado Springs (em dash)
· Pelosi Heads To Netroots Nation (Josh Orton)
· Moveon to make July 9 a "Day of Action for an Oil-Free President" (desmoinesdem)
· WA-8: Burner Loses Home to Fire (Sandwich Repairman)
· MN-Sen: Ethics Complaint Filed Against Republican Norm Coleman (Senate Guru)
· Richardson says Clinton would be a strong running mate (fbihop)
· NM-01: Heinrich Raises Nearly $100,000 on ActBlue (fbihop)
· MS-03 Outgoing Congressman Pickering Files For Divorce (cottonmouthblog)